According to the public relations report of the Joint Chamber of Commerce of Iran and Brazil, a selection of news and economic developments in Brazil in the first week of December 2023, contained in the newspapers and media of this country, is presented as follows

 

Mercosur’s strategic leap in international trade

 

Geraldo Alkamin, the Vice President of Brazil, announced the significant progress in international trade by Mercosur, a large South American trade bloc. This block includes Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay. They have all agreed on a new set of trade rules known as the Rules of Origin Agreement. This agreement is a big deal. This will make Mercosur more competitive in the global market. Alkamin, who also works as the Minister of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services, explained this issue during a meeting. The meeting of the Mercosur trade forum was held in Brasilia, an agreement was held to make trade more predictable and facilitate competition at the global level. A product should mainly have local parts. In particular, at least 55% of it should be from within Mercosur. The new rules of origin apply to almost all products. It is fully applied to most industrial products. For most agricultural products, about 80% is applied For the rest, the old law still applies

Petrobras’ bold five-year plan to create 1.4 million jobs directly and indirectly

 

Petrobras has unveiled its strategic plan for 2024-2028 with the aim of creating 1.4 million jobs directly and indirectly with an annual average of 280,000 jobs. This initiative focuses on oil exploration and production. Jean-Paul Prats, president of Petrobras, highlighted the new direction, which includes exploration of new areas, reinforcement of reserves and continuation of oil and gas operations. At the same time, this company will focus on renewable energies and sustainable products This strategy with a total investment of 102 billion dollars shows a significant change in the approach of Petrobras. It should be mentioned that it includes renewing investment in refineries. Pratts stated that instead of selling the refineries, they will receive funds to turn them into industrial parks

Petrobras plans to resume fertilizer production, resume operations at the Araucária Nitrogenados urea fertilizer plants in Paraná and complete UFN 3 in Mato Grosso do Sul. This company is also looking for participation to maintain fertilizer

factories in Sargip and Bahia. This move is part of their strategy to re-enter the fertilizer market in the broader plan of energy transfer

 

October increase in Brazilian agricultural exports

 

In October 2023, Brazil’s agribusiness sector demonstrated its global impact, exporting $13.4 billion in goods. Although this figure is 2.3 percent less than October last year, it represents 45.4 percent of Brazil’s total exports in the month. The Secretariat of Commerce and International Relations of the Ministry (SCRI) introduced soy, corn and sugar as the main export products. Notably, soybean shipments reached their highest level in October with 5.5 million tons, which increased by 45.7% compared to October 2022. China stood as the leading receiver by importing 88% of these soybeans worth 2.9 billion dollars. Corn exports also see China as the main importer, which accounted for 40.9% of the 8.4 million tons exported from Brazil. This amount has increased by 24.5% compared to the previous year. The increase in corn exports shows the growing role of Brazil in the global agricultural trade. The sugar sector also witnessed an increase of 15.4 percent and reached 1.5 billion dollars from 1.3 billion dollars

The average increase in export prices of Brazilian agricultural products

 

A significant increase of 26.9% in the average export price significantly contributed to the increase in the value of Brazil’s exports. Among sugar importers from Brazil, India is the leader, followed by Algeria, Indonesia, China, Canada and Malaysia, each of which shows different trends in the volume of imports. From January to October 2023, Brazil’s agribusiness exports reached a record $139.6 billion, up 3 percent from 2022. Soya complex, sugar-alcohol complex and grains, including flour and products, were the main factors of this growth. The Asian market, especially China, emerged as the main destination for Brazilian agribusiness exports, highlighting the region’s important role in the Brazilian agricultural economy. China alone has accounted for 36.6% of this export, which is a total of 51.1 billion dollars. These data emphasize the importance of Brazil as a global player in agricultural trade and the importance of its commercial relations, especially with Asian markets

 

Brazil’s economic freedom improved during Bolsonaro’s tenure

 

A study conducted by Mackenzie Presbyterian University shows an increase in economic freedom in Brazil, and its average score has increased from 4.06 in 2020 to 4.38 in 2021. This shows significant progress in the economic sector. Sao Paulo, Espiritu Santo and Mato Grosso do Sul have superiority in this field. On the contrary, Horaima, Tokanchins and Piaoyi are behind. This study measures economic freedom on a scale of 0 to 10. Higher scores symbolize more freedom. Brazil’s current score, below 5, shows the potential for further improvement. States with higher scores usually have lower taxes, more flexible labor markets, and lower government spending. These conditions strengthen economic growth, which is evident in the increase in GDP per capita and the reduction of unemployment in these areas. This score improvement reflects the increase in government spending, labor market regulation and tax burden. The increase in Brazil’s score reflects policy changes and improved governance. This change points to a brighter economic future. Regionally, Latin America is focused on economic liberalization. Brazil’s progress is consistent with these regional efforts

 

 

Brazil market revises downward forecasts for inflation and GDP growth in 2023

 

The pollster, which shows the market’s understanding of economic indicators, noted that expectations for an increase in IPCA [1] in the year decreased for the third consecutive week and reached 4.53%, thus remaining below the target ceiling. The expectation for an increase in IPCA in 2023 decreased for the third consecutive week and reached 4.53% from 4.55% previously and thus remained below the target ceiling. For next year, the inflation forecast remained at 3.91%, while for 2025 and 2026, it remained at 3.5%. The official inflation target center is 3.25% in 2023 and 3.00% for 2024, 2025 and 2026, always with a tolerance margin of 1.5% more or less. For gross domestic product (GDP), this year’s growth estimate was revised down by 0.01 percentage points to 2.84%, while remaining at 1.50% for 2024. The weekly poll of 100 economists also showed that it is expected that the base interest rate of Selik will reach 11.75% this year and 9.25% next year

 

The Brazilian Chemical Industry Association says that these industries will have a deficit of 47 billion dollars in 2023

 

According to the report of this organization, Brazil recorded the lowest productivity rate in this sector in the last 30 years. Abiquim (Brazilian Chemical Industries Association) calculated that based on data from October this year, this sector will end 2023 with a deficit of $47 billion. This amount is the second largest negative balance in history. According to Abikim’s report, the import of chemical products reached 52 billion dollars and the export reached 12.2 billion dollars until October. In terms of volume, the imports that grew the most were plasticizers, thermoplastic resins, basic petrochemical products and chemical intermediates for detergents, and they increased by 79% between January and October

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